Is it the end of exit polls in India?

[anshulseth]

Hi ppl,
Carrying on the election mood, i wud like to bring forth a topic tht is pertinent in today's
context. Exit polls, tht humungous creature tht creeps its head out evry time it scents of an alien called Polls. In India, this idea was there for some time, but this time it really came into its own with a telling magnitude. With the media upsurge n a deluge of channels, it was known by diff. names, but pointed in the same direction. And lo, when it was the time to crown themselves for good work, they were beaten to bust by our unpredictable voters.

Wht actually happened tht made such a large media exercise to go wrong,
wht are the pros and cons of holding an exit polls,
is it required at all,
wht then needs to be done so as not to repeat this mistake; wht is their future or is it the end of the road for them, at least in the world's largest democracy.

Let's analyze each topic one by one.

Preview:
Exit polls have a long history, but they actually started in US sometimes in 1936, with the
magazine named "Literary Digest" holding a poll among its readers about US presidential elections and predicted a loss for the incumbent Roosevelt. Again in 1948, someone named George Gallup, a pollster, predicted Truman to lose. But alas, both the results went against the prediction.
Though the idea started with a failure, but still it gathered enof steam to carry forward in
future and in other countries. The disease did not spare India.
But till sometimes back, these were just of academic importance, and not much credence or valued time was devoted to analyze them. But with changing times and media's reach, they became more n more acceptable and recognizable.They have now become a part of every election.

Advantages:
Exit polls act as an indicator to public's pulse, gauging the mood that is prevalent in the
society. They bring forward the issues that are important to the people, and for which they intend to vote. They help political parties to analyse public sentiments, and so plan their election campaign, to adapt to the changing times leading to the polls.They also bring forth the awareness among the voters to an extent.

Disadvantages:
They may/may not b correct, but in bringing out a scenario, they contribute what is called the "band-wagon effect". Many voters who are undecided make up their mood to follow the majority after having a look at these exit polls. They can be completely partial thus showing a false impression of adavantage of one party over another.


Reasons for failure:
1. The sample of such exit polls is not large.
2. It is not sure that the ppl who voted in it will also vote in the elections.
3. So as to cover large no. of ppl n areas, the survey ppl avoid touching the interior parts which r not very well connected.
4. It is not sure whether the person who votes for one party in exit polls will do the same with the elections.
5. There is a huge percentage of "Can't Say" ppl, who r undecided. Many a times they make the crucial difference.
6. At times, the polls can calculate the percentage vote swing, but in wht proportion it will b converted to the no. of seats is difficult 2 judge.
7. The last wave a few days b4 the election is never recorded by the exit polls.
8. Sometimes, n it is rarely, tht the surveyor's discretion plays a role in coming to a
conclusion.

Future:
So wht is the future of exit polls. Are they here 2 stay or they had their last breath this time round. I feel its not, they r here 2 stay , but the whole process of doing it has 2 b redesigned in a manner tht they r more accurate.They will b an important part as far as elections in India goes, but next time ppl will get to c its new face, thts wht i hope.

Corrective Measures:
The surveyors or the pollsters have to sit back, analyse wht went wrong, redesign the whole process, bring around much better methods of numerical analysis. I may not b surprised if psychologists accompany the surveyors the next time round, so as to gauge the truth in ppl's statement.They have to b made more robust, sample size has to b increased.All in all, more proffesionalism has to b brought into it, so tht this does not happen in future.
Ppl may forget one blunder, but if this happens again, it will sound the deathknell for them.

Wht say u guys?????

Asset

[Editor]

Exit polls are in reality a statistical tool to gauge the public pulse as pointed out by Anshul. However, this time round the Indian electorate defied all rules as the actual results were far from what exit polls had predicted.

My gut feel is that exit polls are only a tool for predicting the outcome, and the important point to note is that the prediction may or may not be correct. Nothing more is at stake than just guessing the mood of the electorate. Everyone knows that the results may vary but to what extent is the real question. People, by nature are inquisitive beings, and thus are eager to know what lies ahead. Whether exit polls succeed in changing the perception and as a result the vote of the people is another debatable issue.

What is your gut feel?