Is it the end of exit polls in India?
by Anshul Seth

Carrying on the election mood in India, i would like to bring forth a topic that is pertinent in today's context. Exit polls, that humungous creature that creeps its head out every time it scents an alien called Polls. In India, this idea was there for some time, but this time it really came into its own with a telling magnitude. With the media upsurge and a deluge of channels, it was known by different names, but pointed in the same direction. And lo, when it was the time to crown the exit polls for good work, they were beaten to bust by our unpredictable voters.

What actually happened that made such a large media exercise to go wrong, what are the pros and cons of holding an exit polls, is it required at all, what then needs to be done so as not to repeat this mistake; what is their future or is it the end of the road for them, at least in the world's largest democracy.

Let's analyze each topic one by one.

Preview:

Exit polls have a long history, but they actually started in the US sometimes in 1936, with the magazine named "Literary Digest" holding a poll among its readers about the US presidential elections and predicted a loss for the incumbent Roosevelt. Again in 1948, someone named George Gallup, a pollster, predicted Truman to lose. But alas, both the results went against the prediction. Though the idea started with a failure, but still it gathered enough steam to carry forward in future and in other countries. The disease did not spare India.

But till sometimes back, these were just of academic importance, and not much credence or valued time was devoted to analyze them. But with changing times and media's reach, they became more and more acceptable and recognizable. They have now become a part of every election.

Advantages:

Exit polls act as an indicator to public's pulse, gauging the mood that is prevalent in the society. They bring forward the issues that are important to the people, and for which they intend to vote. They help political parties to analyze public sentiments, and so plan their election campaign, to adapt to the changing times leading to the polls. They also bring forth the awareness among the voters to an extent.

Disadvantages:

They may or may not be correct, but in bringing out a scenario, they contribute what is called the "band-wagon effect". Many voters who are undecided make up their mood to follow the majority after having a look at these exit polls. They can be completely partial thus showing a false impression of advantage of one party over another.


Reasons for failure:


1. The sample of such exit polls is not large.
2. It is not sure that the people who voted in it will also vote in the elections.
3. So as to cover large number of people and areas, the people who conduct the survey avoid touching the interior parts which are not very well connected.
4. It is not sure whether the person who votes for one party in exit polls will do the same with the elections.
5. There are a huge percentage of "Can't Say" people, who are undecided. Many a times they make the crucial difference.
6. At times, the polls can calculate the percentage vote swing, but in what proportion it will be converted to the number of seats is difficult to judge.
7. The last wave a few days before the election is never recorded by the exit polls.
8. Sometimes, and it is rare, that the surveyor's discretion plays a role in coming to a conclusion.

Future:

So what is the future of exit polls? Are they here to stay or they had their last breath this time round. I feel its not, they are here to stay, but the whole process of doing it has to be redesigned in a manner that they are more accurate. They will be an important part as far as elections in India goes, but next time people will get to see its new face, that what i hope.

Corrective Measures:

The surveyors or the pollsters have to sit back, analyze what went wrong, redesign the whole process, and bring around much better methods of numerical analysis. I may not be surprised if psychologists accompany the surveyors the next time round, so as to gauge the truth in people's statement. They have to be made more robust; sample size has to be increased. All in all, more professionalism has to be brought into it, so that this does not happen in future.

People may forget one blunder, but if this happens again, it will sound the death knell for them.

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